There is a crisis approaching for the universities of the global North. A fundamental problem is that declining or stagnant birth rates are reducing the number of potential students, especially in North America, and that will eventually undermine their economic viability. See this article in Inside Higher Ed for the situation in the US.
The options seem to be limited. Universities could downsize and reduce the numbers of staff and students and, at elite US institutions, spending on country club facilities and an ever expanding army of administrators. They could revise their missions by offering fewer graduate courses, especially in the humanities and social sciences, and more vocational programs.
There seems, however, to be little appetite at the moment for such measures. Many universities are trying to maintain income and size by recruiting from abroad. For a while it appeared that western universities would be saved by thousands of international, mainly Chinese, students. But now it looks like fewer Chinese will be coming and there seems to be no substitute in sight. European universities got excited about Middle Eastern refugees filling the empty seats in lecture halls but then it turned out that most lacked the linguistic and cognitive skills for higher education.
The problem is exacerbated by the general decline or flatlining of cognitive skills of potential students, measured by PISA scores or standardized tests. There have been various hypotheses about the cause: smart phones, too much screen time, immigration, dysgenic fertility, inadequate teaching methods, lack of funding, institutional racism and sexism, toxic Trumpism. But, whatever the cause there seems little hope of a recovery any time soon.
Business schools appear to be part of this trend. MBA students tend to be highly mobile and they are not limited to choosing, as many US undergraduates are, between a community college, the local state university and a struggling private college. Faced with competition from European and Asian schools and online courses, soaring costs and declining applications, many US business schools are at best treading water and at worst in serious danger of drowning.
Dartmouth College, a venerable Ivy League school, is no exception. Back in 2014 it reported the biggest drop in applications in 21 years. Although the college continues to hold its place in the US News Best Colleges rankings it has fallen in the Shanghai rankings, suggesting that it is failing to attract leading researchers as well as talented students.
Dartmouth's Tuck School of Business has suffered as much or more than the rest of the institution. In 2011 it was first in the Economist's Full Time MBA ranking and second in 2012, starting a steady decline until 2019 when it was twelfth.
In 2018 Tuck tried to reverse the steady decline by adopting a new approach to admissions. It was not enough for Tuck students to be smart, accomplished and aware. They have to be nice.
Back in my days in grammar school my English teacher would be outraged by the use of that word. But standards have changed.
How to measure niceness? By an essay and a referee's report. One does not have to be excessively cynical to see that there is obvious room for gaming and bias here. Their is a large amount of writing and talking about coaching for standardized tests, none about whether essays like these have the any real authenticity or validity.
But perhaps I am being too cynical. Maybe Dartmouth's business school has done something right. The latest THE business and economics subject rankings puts Dartmouth 44th in the world for business and economics, which is very creditable, ahead of Boston University, Zhejiang, Edinburgh and Johns Hopkins..
With THE whenever there is a surprisingly high overall score it is a good idea to check the citations indicator which is supposedly a measure of research impact or influence. Sure enough, Dartmouth is second in the world for citations in business and economics just behind Central South University in China and just ahead of Peter the Great St Petersburg polytechnic University.
Could it be that all that niceness is somehow radiating out from the Tuck and causing researchers around the world to cite Dartmouth articles?
Discussion and analysis of international university rankings and topics related to the quality of higher education. Anyone wishing to contact Richard Holmes without worrying about ending up in comments can go to rjholmes2000@yahoo.com
Sunday, December 15, 2019
Sunday, November 10, 2019
When will Tsinghua Overtake Harvard?
One of the most interesting trends in higher education over the last few years is the rise of China and the relative decline of the USA.
Winston Churchill said the empires of the future will be empires of the mind. If that is so then this century will very likely be the age of Chinese hegemony. Chinese science is advancing faster than that of the USA on all or nearly all fronts. Unless we count things like critical race theory or queer studies.
This is something that should show up in the global rankings if we track them over at least a few years. So, here is a comparison of the top two universities in the two countries according to indicators of research output and research quality over a decade.
Unfortunately, most international rankings are not very helpful in this respect. Few of the current ones provide data for a decade or more. QS and THE have seen frequent changes in methodology and THE's citation indicator although charmingly amusing is not useful unless you think that Aswan University, Anglia Ruskin University and the University of Peradeniya are world beaters for research impact. Two helpful rankings here are Shanghai Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU), and Leiden Ranking.
Let's compare the comparative performance of Tsinghua University and Harvard in the Shanghai Ranking's indicator of research output, papers over a one year period, excluding arts and humanities. The published scores are derived from the square roots of the raw data with the top scorer getting a score of 100.
In 2009 Harvard's score was 100 while that for Tsinghua was 55.8. In 2019 it was 100 for Harvard and 79.5 for Tsinghua. So the gap is closing 2.37 points every year. At that rate it would take about nine years for Tsinghua to catch up so look out for 2028.
Of course, this is quantity not quality so take a look at another indicator, Highly Cited Researchers. This is a moderately gamable metric and I suspect that Shanghai might have to abandon it one day but it captures the willingness and ability of universities to sponsor research of a high quality. In 2009 Tsinghua's score was zero compared to Harvard's 100. In 2019 it is 37.4. If everything continues at the same rate Tsinghua will overtake Harvard in another 17 years.
Looking at the default indicator in Leiden Ranking, total publications, in 2007-10 Tsinghua was 35% of Harvard and in 2014-17 56%. Working from that Tsinghua would achieve parity in 2029-33, in the rankings published in 2035.
Looking at a measure of research quality, publications in the top 10% of journals, Tsinghua was 15% of Harvard in 2007-10 and 34% in 2014-17. From that, Tsinghua should reach parity in 2038-42. in the rankings published in 2044, assuming Leiden is still following its current methodology.
So it looks like Tsinghua will reach parity in research output in a decade or a decade or a decade and a half and high quality research in a decade and a half or two decades and a half.
Winston Churchill said the empires of the future will be empires of the mind. If that is so then this century will very likely be the age of Chinese hegemony. Chinese science is advancing faster than that of the USA on all or nearly all fronts. Unless we count things like critical race theory or queer studies.
This is something that should show up in the global rankings if we track them over at least a few years. So, here is a comparison of the top two universities in the two countries according to indicators of research output and research quality over a decade.
Unfortunately, most international rankings are not very helpful in this respect. Few of the current ones provide data for a decade or more. QS and THE have seen frequent changes in methodology and THE's citation indicator although charmingly amusing is not useful unless you think that Aswan University, Anglia Ruskin University and the University of Peradeniya are world beaters for research impact. Two helpful rankings here are Shanghai Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU), and Leiden Ranking.
Let's compare the comparative performance of Tsinghua University and Harvard in the Shanghai Ranking's indicator of research output, papers over a one year period, excluding arts and humanities. The published scores are derived from the square roots of the raw data with the top scorer getting a score of 100.
In 2009 Harvard's score was 100 while that for Tsinghua was 55.8. In 2019 it was 100 for Harvard and 79.5 for Tsinghua. So the gap is closing 2.37 points every year. At that rate it would take about nine years for Tsinghua to catch up so look out for 2028.
Of course, this is quantity not quality so take a look at another indicator, Highly Cited Researchers. This is a moderately gamable metric and I suspect that Shanghai might have to abandon it one day but it captures the willingness and ability of universities to sponsor research of a high quality. In 2009 Tsinghua's score was zero compared to Harvard's 100. In 2019 it is 37.4. If everything continues at the same rate Tsinghua will overtake Harvard in another 17 years.
Looking at the default indicator in Leiden Ranking, total publications, in 2007-10 Tsinghua was 35% of Harvard and in 2014-17 56%. Working from that Tsinghua would achieve parity in 2029-33, in the rankings published in 2035.
Looking at a measure of research quality, publications in the top 10% of journals, Tsinghua was 15% of Harvard in 2007-10 and 34% in 2014-17. From that, Tsinghua should reach parity in 2038-42. in the rankings published in 2044, assuming Leiden is still following its current methodology.
So it looks like Tsinghua will reach parity in research output in a decade or a decade or a decade and a half and high quality research in a decade and a half or two decades and a half.
Friday, October 25, 2019
Using Webometrics to Rank University Systems
Recently there has been some interest in ranking higher education systems in addition to institutions or departments. See here and here. But both of these efforts, from Universitas 21 and QS, rank only 50 countries.
The Webometrics rankings attempt to cover every university in the world or anything that might conceivably claim to be a university, institute or college. The indicators comprise web activity and research output. So, there is data here to create a simple and comprehensive ranking of countries. Below is the list of countries and territories ranked according to the world rank of the highest ranked university. If the Webometrics methodology remains unchanged it will be updated twice a year.
The table is not very surprising overall but it is worth noting that the leading Asian countries are already in the top ten and that Brazil and Mexico are not too far behind. The performance of Arab countries is not too impressive even if they are rich in oil.
It's a safe bet that the highest ranked Chinese university will rise steadily over the next few years followed by South Korea and Singapore, but probably not Hong Kong and Australia.
The Webometrics rankings attempt to cover every university in the world or anything that might conceivably claim to be a university, institute or college. The indicators comprise web activity and research output. So, there is data here to create a simple and comprehensive ranking of countries. Below is the list of countries and territories ranked according to the world rank of the highest ranked university. If the Webometrics methodology remains unchanged it will be updated twice a year.
The table is not very surprising overall but it is worth noting that the leading Asian countries are already in the top ten and that Brazil and Mexico are not too far behind. The performance of Arab countries is not too impressive even if they are rich in oil.
It's a safe bet that the highest ranked Chinese university will rise steadily over the next few years followed by South Korea and Singapore, but probably not Hong Kong and Australia.
Rank
|
Country
|
Rank of highest ranked university
|
1
|
USA
|
1
|
2
|
UK
|
7
|
3
|
Canada
|
19
|
4
|
Switzerland
|
32
|
5
|
China
|
33
|
6
|
Hong Kong
|
45
|
7
|
Australia
|
46
|
8
|
Singapore
|
50
|
9
|
Netherlands
|
63
|
10
|
Japan
|
69
|
11
|
Brazil
|
74
|
12
|
Denmark
|
76
|
13
|
Belgium
|
78
|
14
|
Finland
|
87
|
15
|
Norway
|
93
|
16
|
Germany
|
97
|
17
|
Sweden
|
106
|
18
|
Taiwan
|
111
|
19
|
South Korea
|
116
|
20
|
Italy
|
120
|
21
|
Spain
|
133
|
22
|
Mexico
|
141
|
23
|
Austria
|
150
|
24
|
New Zealand
|
153
|
25
|
Israel
|
157
|
26
|
Czech Republic
|
204
|
27
|
Portugal
|
208
|
28
|
Greece
|
224
|
29
|
Russia
|
226
|
30
|
Argentina
|
228
|
31
|
Ireland
|
230
|
32
|
South Africa
|
274
|
33
|
France
|
292
|
34
|
Chile
|
323
|
35
|
Malaysia
|
352
|
36
|
Argentina
|
372
|
37
|
Poland
|
388
|
38
|
Saudi Arabia
|
415
|
39
|
Iran
|
417
|
40
|
Estonia
|
440
|
41
|
Serbia
|
464
|
42
|
India
|
471
|
43
|
Turkey
|
475
|
44
|
Thailand
|
513
|
45
|
Iceland
|
533
|
46
|
Hungary
|
563
|
47
|
Egypt
|
602
|
48
|
Colombia
|
614
|
49
|
Croatia
|
619
|
50
|
Luxembourg
|
631
|
51
|
Puerto Rico
|
649
|
52
|
Belarus
|
684
|
53
|
Cyprus
|
700
|
54
|
Macau
|
720
|
55
|
Slovakia
|
732
|
56
|
Lithuania
|
750
|
57
|
Indonesia
|
771
|
58
|
Costa Rica
|
844
|
59
|
Malta
|
866
|
60
|
Romania
|
881
|
61
|
Bulgaria
|
934
|
62
|
Jamaica
|
953
|
63
|
Qatar
|
958
|
64
|
Peru
|
971
|
65
|
Kenya
|
987
|
66
|
Vietnam
|
1013
|
67
|
Slovenia
|
1103
|
68
|
Latvia
|
1106
|
69
|
Uganda
|
1129
|
70
|
Jordan
|
1149
|
71
|
UAE
|
1158
|
72
|
Philippines
|
1199
|
73
|
Ghana
|
1209
|
74
|
Nigeria
|
1233
|
75
|
Pakistan
|
1269
|
76
|
Ethiopia
|
1314
|
77
|
Oman
|
1346
|
78
|
Georgia
|
1423
|
79
|
Morocco
|
1515
|
80
|
North Macedonia
|
1569
|
81
|
Venezuela
|
1593
|
82
|
Ecuador
|
1638
|
83
|
Palestine
|
1646
|
84
|
Bosnia
|
1669
|
85
|
Kazakhstan
|
1793
|
86
|
Trinidad
|
1794
|
87
|
Iraq
|
1804
|
88
|
Brunei
|
1829
|
89
|
Fiji
|
1831
|
90
|
Bangladesh
|
1895
|
91
|
Tanzania
|
1913
|
92
|
Ukraine
|
1977
|
93
|
Sri Lanka
|
1981
|
94
|
Zimbabwe
|
2014
|
95
|
Algeria
|
2061
|
96
|
Cuba
|
2134
|
97
|
Bahrain
|
2161
|
98
|
Kuwait
|
2200
|
99
|
Mozambique
|
2280
|
100
|
Paraguay
|
2297
|
101
|
Mauritius
|
2422
|
102
|
Guatemala
|
2458
|
103
|
Uruguay
|
2499
|
104
|
Botswana
|
2583
|
105
|
Grenada
|
2583
|
106
|
Armenia
|
2643
|
107
|
Liechtenstein
|
2761
|
108
|
Montenegro
|
2878
|
109
|
Guam
|
2900
|
110
|
Sudan
|
2936
|
111
|
Bolivia
|
2960
|
112
|
Mongolia
|
2962
|
113
|
Benin
|
2980
|
114
|
Malawi
|
3001
|
115
|
Zambia
|
3001
|
116
|
Senegal
|
3008
|
117
|
Moldova
|
3151
|
118
|
Tunisia
|
3198
|
119
|
Rwanda
|
3220
|
120
|
Nepal
|
3243
|
121
|
Namibia
|
3316
|
122
|
Panama
|
3391
|
123
|
Cameroon
|
3527
|
124
|
Barbados
|
3538
|
125
|
Azerbaijan
|
3573
|
126
|
US Virgin Islands
|
3579
|
127
|
Syria
|
3593
|
128
|
Burkina Faso
|
3634
|
129
|
Dominica
|
3679
|
130
|
Honduras
|
3892
|
131
|
Uzbekistan
|
4017
|
132
|
Libya
|
4040
|
133
|
Yemen
|
4126
|
134
|
Faroe Islands
|
4368
|
135
|
Madagascar
|
4372
|
136
|
Togo
|
4392
|
137
|
Eswatini
|
4428
|
138
|
Laos
|
4431
|
139
|
Nicaragua
|
4458
|
140
|
El Salvador
|
4542
|
141
|
Kyrgyzstan
|
4554
|
142
|
French Polynesia
|
4640
|
143
|
Albania
|
4735
|
144
|
Monaco
|
4842
|
145
|
Dominican Republic
|
4903
|
146
|
Cambodia
|
5060
|
147
|
San Marino
|
5107
|
148
|
Papua New Guinee
|
5205
|
149
|
Greenland
|
5378
|
150
|
Afghanistan
|
5676
|
151
|
Lesotho
|
5872
|
152
|
Antigua
|
6040
|
153
|
Guyana
|
6149
|
154
|
Ivory Coast
|
6306
|
155
|
Anguilla
|
6374
|
156
|
Suriname
|
6641
|
157
|
Democratic Republic of the Congo
|
7033
|
158
|
American Samoa
|
7213
|
159
|
Myanmar
|
7221
|
160
|
Belize
|
7497
|
161
|
Micronesia
|
7962
|
162
|
Haiti
|
8082
|
163
|
Angola
|
8091
|
164
|
Bhutan
|
8159
|
165
|
Niger
|
8384
|
166
|
Sierra Leone
|
8560
|
167
|
Somalia
|
10154
|
168
|
St Kitts & Nevis
|
10527
|
169
|
Cape Verde
|
10685
|
170
|
Andorra
|
10772
|
171
|
Gambia
|
11020
|
172
|
Seychelles
|
11235
|
173
|
South Sudan
|
12329
|
174
|
Cayman Islands
|
13011
|
175
|
Samoa
|
13132
|
176
|
Bermuda
|
13431
|
177
|
British Virgin Islands
|
13694
|
178
|
Maldives
|
13864
|
179
|
Palau
|
13864
|
180
|
St Lucia
|
13981
|
181
|
Tajikistan
|
14180
|
182
|
Djibouti
|
14186
|
183
|
Central African Republic
|
14433
|
184
|
Northern Marianas
|
14444
|
185
|
Marshall Islands
|
15827
|
186
|
Gabon
|
16002
|
187
|
Aruba
|
16347
|
188
|
Solomon Islands
|
17867
|
189
|
Montserrat
|
18103
|
190
|
East Timor
|
18433
|
191
|
Guinea
|
18588
|
192
|
French Guiana
|
18703
|
193
|
Liberia
|
19463
|
194
|
Isle of Man
|
20029
|
195
|
Mali
|
20172
|
196
|
Mauretania
|
22144
|
197
|
Equatorial Guinea
|
23382
|
198
|
Niue
|
23892
|
199
|
Eritrea
|
24481
|
200
|
Turks & Caicos Islands
|
27918
|
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